Electile Weakness
This note was originally sent to clients of MBMG on 8th February, during the general election here in Thailand
A meme circulating at the end of last year suggested that it’s easy to spot English football fans at New Year’s Eve – they’re the ones who celebrate at 12.02, only after the New Year has been confirmed by VAR. [1]
Watchers of Thai politics face a similarly protracted process to learn the outcome of this weekend’s election.
The Election Timeline
Voting Day: Elections take place on Sunday, February 8, from 09:00 to 17:00.
Results Announcement: At least 95% of the MP results will be announced by April 9, 2026.
Parliamentary Session: The first parliamentary session, where the Speaker of the House is elected, is anticipated in April 2026.
Prime Minister Election: The vote to elect the Prime Minister is expected in May 2026.
Government Formation: The new government will probably take until mid-June 2026 to form its Cabinet, be sworn in, and issue its policy statement.
At that point, the new government should have fully taken office.
The Previous Election Fallout
In the prior election on May 14, 2023, the Move Forward Party (MFP) won the largest number of seats (151 out of 500) and the most substantial share of the popular vote (36.23%). After lengthy negotiations, MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat announced a coalition with seven other parties to form a government. However, in the vote for Prime Minister, Pita fell short of the required 375 votes—leading to popular protests reminiscent of disenchanted football fans reacting to a VAR decision.[2]
Six days later, Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended Pita from his MP role, on grounds which many commentators viewed as a mere technicality.[3]
MFP expressed its understandable opposition to Pheu Thai’s new coalition. An opinion poll showed a significant rise in support for MFP, largely at the expense of Pheu Thai, who had alienated many supporters by breaking a pre-election promise not to form a coalition with the United Thai Nation and Palang Pracharath parties, to which Pheu Thai had been historically opposed.
On the same day, that the Court suspended him as an MP, Parliament blocked Pita from a second vote for premiership.
MFP’s largest coalition partner, the Pheu Thai Party (PTP), which had secured the second-most votes, proceeded to form a coalition without MFP.
Just over three months after the election, Srettha Thavisin of PTP was elected as Prime Minister.[4] This coincided with the return of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra after 15 years in self-imposed exile. Thaksin began serving an eight-year sentence for corruption. One week later the Royal Gazette announced that this had been commuted to just one year.
The following day, Srettha received Royal assent to become Thailand’s 30th Prime Minister. Srettha’s cabinet was sworn in on 5th September.
Political Turmoil and Shifting Alliances
Just over four months after the election, Pita stepped down as leader of Move Forward, in view of the uncertainty over his status as an MP.
In January 2024, over eight months after the election, Pita was acquitted of media share ownership charges. However, his celebrations were short-lived; the Constitutional Court ruled that MFP and its leaders had violated the constitution with their campaign to amend Thailand’s strict lèse-majesté laws. The Court deemed this an attempt to overthrow the monarchy. As had happened to its predecessor, the Future Forward Party[5], MFP was subsequently dissolved, with a ten-year political ban imposed on its leaders in August 2024.
The following week, the same court removed Srettha from office for allegedly following Thaksin’s orders in appointing as a cabinet minister, a former Thaksin lawyer, who was one of three individuals sentenced to six months in prison for contempt of court after ‘mistakenly’ giving Supreme Court officials a lunchbox containing ฿2 million inside a paper bag, left at the Court on the day that Thaksin and his wife Potjaman were due to appear. The mistake was apparently the fault of a driver who had been supposed to leave an identical bag containing chocolate for the Supreme Court officials.
Current Outlook
In the eighteen months since Srettha’s removal, Thailand has had two acting PMs and two actual PMs, all minted from the Pheu Thai/Bhumjaithai rival sides of the same coin.
Based on this precedent, anyone expecting a quick and tidy outcome to this weekend’s election is likely to be even more frustrated than football fans venting against VAR.
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About the Author:
Paul Gambles is licensed by the SEC as both a Securities Fundamental Investment Analyst and an Investment Planner.
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[1] In this instance VAR refers to Video Assistant Referee (not VaR or Value at Risk, an investment risk management system that we’ve written disparagingly about on many occasions). VAR uses video clips and other media and technology to assist on field referees to review decisions. While it may have helped improve the accuracy of decision-making, the delays for decisions to be confirmed have created frustrations among football fans.
[2] Space prevents us covering the 2019 election, which was in many ways even more convoluted.
[3] Pita had inherited shares in a defunct media company from his father, Pongsak Limjaroenrat.
[4] In the KPI opinion poll taken immediately prior to the May 2023 election, Srettha ranked 5th out of 6 major possible PM candidates, attracting the approval of only 6% of respondents polled.
[5] Among complaints against Future Forward that were rejected were that it used the symbol of the Illuminati as a covert call to overthrow the Thai monarchy. Ultimately it was disqualified for a technical breach of election funding rules by accepting a loan from the party’s billionaire founder, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.